Lear, aircraft and electronics development Hermann Oberth, famous rocket pioneer Capt. See Chapter 2 for additional details. The Report to Congress came after nearly four years of data gathering, detailed investigation, scientific analyses, and thorough documentation of hundreds of UFO cases.
Biases in Evaluation of Evidence Evaluation of evidence is a crucial step in analysis, but what evidence people rely on and how they interpret it are influenced by a variety of extraneous factors. Information presented in vivid and concrete detail often has unwarranted impact, and people tend to disregard abstract or statistical information that may have greater evidential value.
We seldom take the absence of evidence into account. The human mind is also oversensitive to the consistency of the evidence, and insufficiently sensitive to the reliability of the evidence.
Finally, impressions often remain even after the evidence on which they are based has been totally discredited.
Evidence comes from an unusually diverse set of sources: Each source has its own unique strengths, weaknesses, potential or actual biases, and vulnerability to manipulation and deception. The most salient characteristic of the information environment is its diversity--multiple sources, each with varying degrees of reliability, and each commonly reporting information which by itself is incomplete and sometimes inconsistent or even incompatible with reporting from other sources.
Conflicting information of uncertain reliability is endemic to intelligence analysis, as is the need to make rapid judgments on current events even before all the evidence is in. The analyst has only limited control over the stream of information.
Tasking of sources to report on specific subjects is often a cumbersome and time-consuming process. Evidence on some important topics is sporadic or nonexistent.
Most human-source information is second hand at best. Recognizing and avoiding biases under such circumstances is particularly difficult. Most of the biases discussed in this chapter are unrelated to each other and are grouped together here only because they all concern some aspect of the evaluation of evidence.
The Vividness Criterion The impact of information on the human mind is only imperfectly related to its true value as evidence. Information that people perceive directly, that they hear with their own ears or see with their own eyes, is likely to have greater impact than information received secondhand that may have greater evidential value.
Case histories and anecdotes will have greater impact than more informative but abstract aggregate or statistical data. Events that people experience personally are more memorable than those they only read about.
Concrete words are easier to remember than abstract words, 92 and words of all types are easier to recall than numbers.
In short, information having the qualities cited in the preceding paragraph is more likely to attract and hold our attention. It is more likely to be stored and remembered than abstract reasoning or statistical summaries, and therefore can be expected to have a greater immediate effect as well as a continuing impact on our thinking in the future.
Intelligence analysts generally work with secondhand information. The information that analysts receive is mediated by the written words of others rather than perceived directly with their own eyes and ears. Partly because of limitations imposed by their open CIA employment, many intelligence analysts have spent less time in the country they are analyzing and had fewer contacts with nationals of that country than their academic and other government colleagues.
Occasions when an analyst does visit the country whose affairs he or she is analyzing, or speaks directly with a national from that country, are memorable experiences. Such experiences are often a source of new insights, but they can also be deceptive.
That concrete, sensory data do and should enjoy a certain priority when weighing evidence is well established. When an abstract theory or secondhand report is contradicted by personal observation, the latter properly prevails under most circumstances.
There are a number of popular adages that advise mistrust of secondhand data: Seeing should not always be believing. Personal observations by intelligence analysts and agents can be as deceptive as secondhand accounts.
Most individuals visiting foreign countries become familiar with only a small sample of people representing a narrow segment of the total society. Incomplete and distorted perceptions are a common result. A familiar form of this error is the single, vivid case that outweighs a much larger body of statistical evidence or conclusions reached by abstract reasoning.
When a potential car buyer overhears a stranger complaining about how his Volvo turned out to be a lemon, this may have as much impact on the potential buyer's thinking as statistics in Consumer Reports on the average annual repair costs for foreign-made cars.
If the personal testimony comes from the potential buyer's brother or close friend, it will probably be given even more weight.Before moving on to an analysis of Biblical morality, I would like to offer some advice and encouraging words to my fellow ph-vs.com main piece of advice is to not be discouraged by slanderous attacks on Islam or how it is distorted in the media.
Jul 07, · Chapter 10 Biases in Evaluation of Evidence Evaluation of evidence is a crucial step in analysis, but what evidence people rely on and how they interpret it are influenced by a variety of extraneous factors.
Political science: Political science, the systematic study of governance by the application of empirical and generally scientific methods of analysis. As traditionally defined and studied, political science examines the state and its organs and institutions.
The contemporary discipline, however, is considerably.
About ph-vs.com ph-vs.com is the world’s leading online source for English definitions, synonyms, word origins, audio pronunciations, example sentences, slang phrases, idioms, word games, legal and medical terms, Word of the Day and more.
search essay examples. browse by category. browse by type. Get Expert. Essay Editing Help. upload your essay. An Analysis of the Various Observers of American Society Charge in the Distorted Definition of Manhood. 1, words. 3 pages. An Overview and an Analysis of the Story X: a Fabulous Child's Story by Lois Gould.
. African American, fought againt racisms, published a book on black white relations, founded National Association fro the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) W.E.B. Du Bois Co founded NAACP and fought for social reform.